The theory behind this idea was to run a series of back tests against various instruments, looking only for, or at expectancy. Not the amount of profit, just that fact that a profit was produced.
I ran the backtests against 6 criteria:
- Relative Strength as measured against the Total Stock Market.
- Relative Strength as measured against a fixed return of 10% per annum.
- Linear regression slope of the moving average of $ weighted Advancing minus declining volume.
- Relative position of my Dollar weighted buying power.
- Linear regression slope of the moving average of the A/D line of the sector or index (as opposed to the NYSE or NASDAQ A/D line).
- Finally a Linear regression slope of the moving average of the McClellan Summation index, again calculated on the sector or index.
The plus and minus signs below describe the state of that indicator, positive or negative. A composite score of all the tests is calculated and printed. The last four columns are an estimate of the Hurst Cycles. The scorecard is run against Morningstar sectors and industry groups, and 19 indexes. A modified version against selected ETFs by asset class.
This is run weekly for members. If you would like to compare today’s run against the 19 indexes values on April 16 of this year, click HERE!