S&P + Morningstar Sector Watch

For members, I maintain rankings of Fidelity Select Funds by relative strength. The performance over the last 25 years or so has been exemplary with risk adjusted annual returns in excess of 12% and 13% (depending upon the number of funds rotated). The problem with this method is the draw downs can be quite severe at times, and I am aware of the public's propensity to panic at bottoms. Attempting to utilize a market timing technique based upon a major market average actually worsened performance; reducing the returns with even larger draw downs. 

Reason: markets top and bottom Sector by sector.  A sell signal may have occurred on a major average but our sector long position did not top, even advanced for awhile longer. That gain was lost due to the major average sell. A buy signal and buying the top ranked found that they had already moved a bit. Conclusion follow sectors and not the major averages.

Sector Watch: I have found over the years that stocks in an Overweight position surprises tend to the positive side. Those with underweight the reverse. If you are a bull look to buy the over weights, a bear look to short the under weights.

The Big Win

The will to win, the desire to succeed, the urge to reach your full potential... these are the keys that will unlock the door to personal excellence. 

Confucius

Most new traders dream of making the ultimate trade, the big win that will set them up for life. Perhaps by chance, you just happen to hold a large position in a company that the masses have decided is going to go through the roof, and the price shoots up for no sound reason. 

Whatever the circumstances we all dream of making that big, exciting trade, the killing. Ask many seasoned traders about their biggest winning trades, and they will recount those few times where luck was on their side. Although no story is the same, many of the tales of success concern holding a huge position and being at the right place at the right time. As fun and exciting as these stories are to hear, you must put them in proper perspective. Planning on making a few lucky trades is much like hoping to win the lottery; it may happen, but it isn't something that you should count on. The most prudent way to make money trading is to work at it consistently, and through hard work and persistence, make steady profits.

Profitable trading is carefully planning your entry and exit strategies, your risk control, your money management skills. These strategies will not make you rich overnight, but they will help you make small steady progress over time. Some trades will be winners and some will be losers. Once you develop rock-solid trading skills, you will make steady profits and the odds of hitting that big one will increase with your skills. Eventually you'll see your profits begin to grow exponentially, but none of this will happen if you continue to fantasize about making the big winning miracle trade.

It may be fun to daydream of how the markets will move in your favor and make you a millionaire from a single trade, but that's unlikely to happen. In addition, hoping for such a lucky event is bound to distract you from what you actually need to do to become a consistently profitable trader: You need to learn to trade systematically, objectively, and consciously. Only then will you make the profits you desire.