Thursday, July 31, 2014

The Big Win

The will to win, the desire to succeed, the urge to reach your full potential... these are the keys that will unlock the door to personal excellence. 
Confucius

Most new traders dream of making the ultimate trade, the big win that will set them up for life. Perhaps by chance, you just happen to hold a large position in a company that the masses have decided is going to go through the roof, and the price shoots up for no sound reason. 

Whatever the circumstances we all dream of making that big, exciting trade, the killing. Ask many seasoned traders about their biggest winning trades, and they will recount those few times where luck was on their side. Although no story is the same, many of the tales of success concern holding a huge position and being at the right place at the right time. As fun and exciting as these stories are to hear, you must put them in proper perspective. Planning on making a few lucky trades is much like hoping to win the lottery; it may happen, but it isn't something that you should count on. The most prudent way to make money trading is to work at it consistently, and through hard work and persistence, make steady profits.

Profitable trading is carefully planning your entry and exit strategies, your risk control, your money management skills. These strategies will not make you rich overnight, but they will help you make small steady progress over time. Some trades will be winners and some will be losers. Once you develop rock-solid trading skills, you will make steady profits and the odds of hitting that big one will increase with your skills. Eventually you'll see your profits begin to grow exponentially, but none of this will happen if you continue to fantasize about making the big winning miracle trade.


It may be fun to daydream of how the markets will move in your favor and make you a millionaire from a single trade, but that's unlikely to happen. In addition, hoping for such a lucky event is bound to distract you from what you actually need to do to become a consistently profitable trader: You need to learn to trade systematically, objectively, and consciously. Only then will you make the profits you desire.

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Ranking the World by Relative Strength - 4 Time Frames

Relative strength is an important and often misunderstood investment thesis. In 1998 UCLA professors Narisimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman did some tests utilizing relative strength over several different time frames. They found a direct statistically significant correlation between relative strength and later price performance up to 12 months later. The most consistent period for defining the initial relative strength was six months.
There are numerous academic and research papers out there, do a little research to find them. Other proponents of relative strength include but are not limited to: Bill O'Neal (I B D), James P O'Shaughnessy (What Works on Wall Street), and Charles Kirkpatrick (CMT) and author of several technical analysis and trading books.
Today I'll rank International markets by relative strength over 4 time frames. Compare to the last time I ran this screen April 10 of this year.  HERE!  The sort is by 3 month relative strength.